I think craft beer is a bubble

And its beginning to deflate. I don't think its gonna pop, just slowly leak air.

My reasoning ...........

A. In the past 10 years , there's been tremendous growth. Lots of new breweries and brewers turning out many many new beers. Lots of beer supply.

B. Prices don't reflect this growth in supply, in fact, its been just the opposite, prices have risen. This new supply should be putting downward pressure on prices.

C. Craft beer's share of the beer market is static. Its hit about 12% and stopped. The only way prices can continue to rise without growth in market share, is if the overall market is growing. Craft beer has to be bringing in people who did not drink beer to continue to support prices.

I'm already seeing some signs of it cracking. Founders is now selling three beers in 15 paks for around $18. The beers are their very popular All Day IPA, and two other very good beers, Centennial IPA, and an ale, Mosaic Promise. This is a step to the future , IMO. Give me a good beer for around one dollar a beer, and I'm happy.

I've been drinking craft for 10+ years and I've always had a limit of around $9 per 6 pak for most beers. I will splurge for a barrel aged stout. But lately, its been hard to find beers for that price.

I've explored all the styles of beer and the many variations of those styles, and frankly, its become old hat. And its become somewhat silly with some of these flavors infused or brewed into beers. I'm looking for a basic good brew at a good price.

I saw this last week at a local package store, and I'm sure this is a great beer, but I ain't payin $40 for a 4 pak of 12 oz bottles. I'm sure someone will enjoy it, but not me. There was a day I would order a $10 beer at a beer bar, just to satisfy my curiosity, but that day is gone.

This stuff is waayyyy over priced, the bubble is gonna break.

 

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